Monday, July 21, 2014

reading to financial freedom

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Evaluation of real estate cashflow opportunities in Canada?

After 2-3 month research, I found no real estate opportunity worth investing in in a cashflow perspective in Canada. All opportunities are minimum 30% overvalued. I used the method describe in this post: "How to evaluate a real estate opportunity?"

the herd will tell you:


Stop following the herd!
Capital gain is risky because you have to play the flipper buy low/sale high and most people can't do it and will be stuck to sale low to someone who has cashflow. 

To make an finance analogy, overvalued stocks are overvalued because they consider potential growth:

  • Population growth
  • Employment increase due to aging population & decrease canadian $ (canadian workforce is cheaper)

 The Two Types of Investment Income image
Canadian real-estate is overvalued because it is already considering lot of potential growth and future is risky because:

  • Canadian $ depend too much on oil and everyone is trying to move away from it (canadian dollars will keep decreasing)...you should invest elwhere
  • Interest rate won't stay low forever....which means your overvalued will become super overvalued
  • Banks apply more then 20% cash down rule (don't recognize market value, remember Banks don't take risk, you take it all)
Bottom line: buying overvalued real estate force you to stay in the capital gain game to make your investment worth-full.
Recommendation: buy in the US because real estate value is more reasonable + US will most likely gain value against CAN dollar due to oil.

remainder:
  • Income
  • Appreciation
  • Mortgage Pay-down
  • Tax Benefits

Price are way less overvalued in the states but you have to consider the overhead of US tax. You need a Tax Payer ID (no need for an social assurance number) + you can use software such as taxact to fill your taxes.